NCRFC Forecast

Greetings folks,

In accordance to my status as an employee at Meridian, I do need to be a little careful at what I say and write about on the blog here regarding the flood forecasts. So, first off, I want to apologize for anyone coming here to find any kind of forecast from me. All I will provide from here on out will be only be opinions and/or criticisms. The latter, only if need be, of course! Hah!

Anyhow, I figured I would provide a link to the official forecasts from the North Central River Forecast Center for the East Grand Forks, MN forecast point on the Red River:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=fgf&gage=egfm5&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6

From this first page, you can view the current stage of the river, as well as, historical crests and impacts at various stages of the river, if you scroll down the page.

If you click on the "Chance of Exceeding Levels During Entire Period" tab at the top, it will bring up a graph of the forecast crests the NCRFC is forecasting and the probabilities for each during the period. The 50-60 percentile is basically the threshold for concern, since at this point, we're looking at a fairly respectable chance of seeing a crest at that stage.

As you may see, the 50-60 percentile falls very near a 50 foot crest. Which would make it the 2nd or 3rd highest crest on record. Obviously, this highly depends on weather conditions over the next couple of weeks. If we would happen to get additional precipitation, for instance, significant changes could occur to these numbers.

Again, for interests in the Valley, please keep this link handy - and check up on it, at least every other day or so. Especially, over the course of the next week, as warmer temperatures expected to push in will quickly melt our snow-cover.

This will continue the wet, slushy mess out there on the roads during the day and refreezing issues at night.