Severe Weather Outbreak

Well, folks, it appears the convective severe season has begun across the Southern Plains and Southern Mississippi Valley. Numerous reports of hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes have sprung up across the region today.

A combination of several factors are resulting in the outbreak... First, a deep trough over the west, resulting in strong west-southwest flow aloft (700 mb flow of 100+ KTS is providing for 50+ KTS of bulk shear over areas of Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma and western areas of Arkansas and northwest Louisiana). Second, a potent shortwave being kicked eastward out of the southwest by the trough... Third, southerly winds at the surface. Finally, warm and juicy air advecting northward out of the Gulf. It's a darn good synoptic setup for an outbreak of this magnitude.

The setup will push eastward overnight and into tomorrow, so additional severe weather is in store for areas over the Tennessee Valley and into the Lower Ohio Valley, Wednesday. It will be an active week with this system pushing through the eastern US, while another shortwave trough will eject into the Southern Plains from the the cut-off low over the southwest.

This type of pattern would spell a chaser's dream in May or June, let alone in mid-February.

While I'm jealous of the chasers in the Southern Plains, I don't necessarily want to see damage or fatalities. Luckily, there have been no reports of fatilities or injuries, but there have been widespread damage reports. Edmund, Olkahoma seems to be hardest hit, as far as tornado damage is concerned. Reports are trickling in now, that northwestern areas of the city saw major damage from a large tornado there earlier this afternoon. I haven't confirmed this, myself, but either way, I'm hoping folks there took the proper precautions and are doing well.

I've been watching areas down there most of the afternoon and into the evening and, as you can see on the Radar Floater, a strong squall line is currently pushing eastward across Texas and Oklahoma late tonight. This will likely continue to bring damaging winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado or two.